Oral Arguments Predict Supreme Court Votes More Accurately in Closely Divided Cases

By Adam Feldman · SCOTUSblog · 2026-07-27

A data analysis of 56 signed decisions from the most recent Supreme Court term shows that raw word counts directed at advocates can forecast individual justice votes with over 64% accuracy. SCOTUSblog reports that while questioning patterns often signal a justice's skepticism tow

A data analysis of 56 signed decisions from the most recent Supreme Court term shows that raw word counts directed at advocates can forecast individual justice votes with over 64% accuracy. SCOTUSblog reports that while questioning patterns often signal a justice's skepticism tow